Britain's finance minister has handled this week's financial plan similar to a unwilling swimmer creeping into cold water, attempting to mitigate the discomfort through incremental immersion.
First Moves and Tax Commitments
The chancellor started addressing the problem of limited income towards the conclusion of the summer months. Initially, she refused to uphold previous insistence that increases in taxation in last year's budget would be the last ones.
Then, earlier this month, she took a larger stride into the icy sea. A speech committed to "do what is necessary" to finance government services and keep loan interest down.
Election Pledge and Political Retreat
Within 10 days, the Treasury had withdrawn the suggestion. The election promise still stood ultimately. Similar to any cold-water dipper understands, this aborted plunge and shivering pullback is the most painful of all techniques. Nothing extends the discomfort like hesitation.
It's challenging to be resolute when deciding between degrees of self-inflicted injury.
Optimism as Strategy
Hope has not been a great tactic for the administration. Central of Keir Starmer's general election campaign was the vain hope of somehow fulfilling the public's call for enhanced state services without undoing significant amounts of Tory reductions in taxation.
Messaging Shortcoming
Never has both Starmer or the chancellor effectively communicated a feeling of shared mission to explain all this difficulty. In part that is a issue of charisma. The prime minister and the chancellor are remarkably similar in their communicative deficiency, wooden and reticent in a way that drives listeners back instead of drawing them in.
Brexit Agreement and Financial Reality
Just as public demand to invest in state services has compelled the finance ministry to admit that taxes must go up, the financial necessity of increasing economic expansion makes it ever harder to disregard the price of separation from the European single market.
EU Relations and Discussions
The government used a year experimenting in the initial phase of closer ties with the European Union: plans to eliminate import controls on food items; a young people's exchange program. Vision went a further on power generation, armed forces partnership, but no significant agreements has yet been finalized.
Political Reality and Global Position
In the absence clear direction and drive from No 10, discussions are stalled. Brussels authorities says trading benefits are accessed with contributions to the European funds. Government representatives understand that's the deal. That doesn't make them enthusiastic for a visible argument and political opponents shouting treason over the eventual amount ends up being paid.
Economic Harm and Government Wording
Economic reality has provoked some shift in the administration's language on the EU relationship. The chancellor has begun citing Brexit alongside the coronavirus crisis as a cause of commercial injury that the Treasury is striving to repair. Other ministers have followed suit, although they deliberately assign the blame to "poor negotiation terms" or "the exit process", never just "leaving".
International Context and Future Outlook
The problem of the nation's future relationship with the EU can't be limited to administrative modifications and import controls when the global political landscape is in tumultuous flux. Given everything that has transpired since the Brexit vote, it feels legitimate still to be asking the big question: were the UK's priorities promoted by leaving the European Union?
Summary
These are cold, uncomfortable truths about the nation's position in turbulent international waters. It is understandable that the prime minister and the chancellor shy away from the challenge. It would take them beyond their capabilities, into trends that they dare not oppose. So as an alternative they carry on nervously pacing the water's edge, hoping that maybe soon the tide will change.
